Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6079 PHL 09:29 → TYS 11:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5352 PHL 18:07 → TYS 20:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6079 Piedmont	PHL 09:29	TYS 11:22	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 9954 PSA	PHL 19:46	TYS 21:36	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5455 PSA	PHL 13:26	TYS 15:21	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5352 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:07	TYS 20:20	13%	5%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON