Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5628 at 18:14, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:14	XNA 20:32	15%	6%	0.8%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:39 → XNA 09:30DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 15m	98%	91%
American Details →	PHL 07:02 → DFW 09:42AA 583	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:27 → XNA 13:50AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → XNA 17:18DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → XNA 00:01 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	98%	89%
American Details →	PHL 15:27 → DFW 17:51AA 402	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → XNA 22:54AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	8h 27m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:56 → ORD 08:12AA 3074	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → XNA 13:22AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 15:46 → ATL 17:53DL 2131	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:17 → XNA 22:09DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor	7h 23m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:33DL 1710	7h 01m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON