Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4896 PHX 09:10 → ABQ 11:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 972 PHX 13:34 → ABQ 15:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4896 Southwest	PHX 09:10	ABQ 11:23	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	PHX 08:49	ABQ 11:20	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
MQ 3879 Envoy	PHX 12:28	ABQ 14:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4325 Southwest	PHX 10:55	ABQ 13:09	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2571 Southwest	PHX 15:41	ABQ 17:55	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 972 Southwest	PHX 13:34	ABQ 15:48	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON