tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:50, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 42m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 14h 04m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:05 → PDX 13:53AS 511 3h 58m Portland PDX 17:51 → ANC 20:50AS 1455 10h 45m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 18m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 9h 04m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 11h 12m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280 10h 33m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:27AA 399 12h 57m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 18m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 3h 35m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 26m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:13 → SEA 19:11AS 401 46m Seattle SEA 19:57 → ANC 22:44AS 769 7h 31m 46% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON