Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	2%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 849 Delta	PHX 00:00	ATL 06:47	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 07:15	ATL 14:00	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	9%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:11	ATL 21:50	9%	4%	0.6%	81%
WN 3359 Southwest	PHX 11:02	ATL 17:40	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	17%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON