Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1059 PHX 08:48 → AUS 13:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1059 American	PHX 08:48	AUS 13:33	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4339 Southwest	PHX 10:49	AUS 15:02	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3164 Southwest	PHX 17:44	AUS 21:58	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	PHX 14:19	AUS 18:33	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 09:22	AUS 13:47	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	15%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	18%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON