Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3165 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3165 PHX 06:27 → BNA 11:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2732 PHX 13:24 → BNA 18:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3165 Southwest	PHX 06:27	BNA 11:53	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3167 Southwest	PHX 10:47	BNA 15:57	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:17	BNA 14:42	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 814 Southwest	PHX 17:40	BNA 23:03	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1370 American Flight history →	PHX 08:55	BNA 14:42	14%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 2732 Southwest	PHX 13:24	BNA 18:33	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON