Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 514 at 22:19 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 514 PHX 22:19 → BOS 06:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 567 PHX 15:15 → BOS 23:14 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 514 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:19	BOS 06:09	13%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 1245 American	PHX 08:44	BOS 17:22	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 12:40	BOS 21:01	29%	12%	0.9%	74%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	29%	11%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:11 → ATL 21:50DL 796	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 09m	84%	71%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	7h 04m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON