Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3172 PHX 06:56 → BUR 08:22 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6246 PHX 14:37 → BUR 16:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3172 Southwest	PHX 06:56	BUR 08:22	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4938 Southwest	PHX 08:41	BUR 10:06	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4227 Envoy	PHX 08:08	BUR 09:56	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3174 Southwest	PHX 11:53	BUR 13:18	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3887 Southwest	PHX 14:57	BUR 16:22	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 14:37	BUR 16:11	12%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON