tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:48 → BZN 13:41UA 741 6h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:39 → BZN 15:27UA 513 5h 19m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947 8h 30m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709 3h 17m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 6h 50m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SEA 08:58AS 605 3h 11m Seattle SEA 12:09 → BZN 14:47AS 277 7h 47m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON