Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3809 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:53	CID 14:16	11%	1%	0.7%	93%
OO 4935 SkyWest	PHX 15:59	CID 20:54	26%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 22:12 → CID 23:24DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	7h 33m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	3h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 14:52 → CID 16:04DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	7h 19m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHX 15:22 → ORD 20:55AA 435	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → CID 00:11 +1AA 4231 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	92%	86%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DFW 13:05AA 2719	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:11 → CID 18:25AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	7h 55m	98%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 08m Denver	DEN 10:00 → CID 12:54UA 2742	4h 54m	97%	85%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:33 → CID 20:42AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 11m	98%	84%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	98%	82%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 18:08 → CID 19:32AA 3127	9h 02m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON