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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Cleveland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 8h 50m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 52m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 7h 04m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339 9h 21m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 5h 36m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 35m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350 8h 26m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 20m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476 6h 45m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON