Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1591 PHX 13:49 → CLT 21:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
AA 2821 American Flight history →	PHX 23:27	CLT 06:41	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:22	CLT 13:43	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 665 American	PHX 09:57	CLT 17:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1617 American	PHX 12:20	CLT 19:37	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1591 American	PHX 13:49	CLT 21:04	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 02m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	6h 07m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:11 → ATL 21:50DL 796	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 47m	85%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON