tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2900 American Flight history → PHX 09:01 CMH 16:12 11% 4% 0.6% 83%
WN 351 Southwest PHX 14:49 CMH 21:24 20% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 7h 18m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 2h 47m Chicago ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic 8h 18m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 2h 51m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 12m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 20:32 → CMH 22:16DL 1501 9h 02m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 11m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 97% 90%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 3h 38m Chicago ORD 16:29 → CMH 18:52AA 3542 · flown by Envoy 8h 52m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:10 → ORD 16:01AA 332 3h 35m Chicago ORD 19:36 → CMH 22:10AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 9h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 8h 48m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON