Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2990 American Flight history →	PHX 08:50	CVG 15:54	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
SY 3090 Sun Country	PHX 07:09	CVG 13:30	19%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 16:28 → CVG 18:52AA 4507 · flown by Republic	8h 52m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	7h 56m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → CVG 21:45DL 2248	8h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 14:17 → CVG 15:35DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	6h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	97%	89%
American Details →	PHX 10:10 → ORD 16:00AA 332	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy	8h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:39DL 703	8h 54m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON