Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1161 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1161 PHX 05:58 → DAL 10:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4869 PHX 15:20 → DAL 19:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1161 Southwest	PHX 05:58	DAL 10:17	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 768 Southwest	PHX 06:07	DAL 10:27	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 406 Southwest	PHX 07:52	DAL 12:18	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4708 Southwest	PHX 08:15	DAL 12:35	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	PHX 10:45	DAL 15:11	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 733 Southwest	PHX 16:25	DAL 20:44	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3111 Southwest	PHX 13:18	DAL 17:44	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	PHX 18:59	DAL 23:28	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4869 Southwest	PHX 15:20	DAL 19:47	18%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON