Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 13:12, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 3191 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DCA 15:59	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1787 American Flight history →	PHX 13:07	DCA 20:52	17%	5%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 08:58 → DCA 12:08AA 523	7h 53m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	9h 08m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 24m	99%	87%
American Details →	PHX 08:40 → IND 15:34AA 2954	1h 33m Indianapolis	IND 17:07 → DCA 19:09AA 4452 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	3h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	9h 20m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHX 09:01 → CMH 16:12AA 2900	3h 00m Columbus	CMH 19:12 → DCA 20:53AA 4398 · flown by Republic	8h 52m	100%	86%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625	9h 21m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON