tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6374 SkyWest PHX 08:32 DSM 13:23 13% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 19:21 DSM 00:15 15% 4% 0.6% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:56 → DSM 18:08AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 8h 38m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 57m Denver DEN 09:49 → DSM 12:40UA 596 4h 40m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 13:17 → DSM 14:33DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 5h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 17m Detroit DTW 20:00 → DSM 20:59DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 8h 04m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 19:54 → DSM 21:13DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 7h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 8h 37m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 5h 07m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:01 → DSM 14:31UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 6h 21m 96% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON