Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4979 at 09:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4979 PHX 09:06 → ELP 11:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2875 PHX 18:54 → ELP 21:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4979 Southwest	PHX 09:06	ELP 11:24	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4907 SkyWest	PHX 09:14	ELP 11:47	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:36	ELP 15:01	13%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 428 Southwest	PHX 14:34	ELP 16:52	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3954 Southwest	PHX 17:13	ELP 19:31	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2875 American	PHX 18:54	ELP 21:20	23%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON