Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1222 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1222 PHX 06:40 → EWR 14:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2796 PHX 11:46 → EWR 19:27 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1222 United Flight history →	PHX 06:40	EWR 14:38	8%	3%	0.9%	100%
UA 1194 United	PHX 22:23	EWR 06:01	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	23%	7%	1.0%	71%
AA 1327 American	PHX 08:36	EWR 16:40	23%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2188 United	PHX 10:16	EWR 18:00	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2291 United	PHX 13:39	EWR 21:34	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2796 United	PHX 11:46	EWR 19:27	34%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 54m	97%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON