Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6359 PHX 07:16 → FAT 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1919 PHX 14:07 → FAT 16:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6359 SkyWest	PHX 07:16	FAT 09:09	8%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2396 American Flight history →	PHX 10:24	FAT 12:24	12%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 6317 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:29	FAT 19:12	14%	6%	0.5%	77%
AA 1919 American	PHX 14:07	FAT 16:05	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON