Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6491 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:05	GJT 18:42	7%	2%	0.5%	85%
OO 4996 SkyWest	PHX 08:57	GJT 11:34	8%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Junction is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → GJT 13:00AA 3592 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	99%	92%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714	5h 31m	99%	91%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	4h 32m	97%	87%
United Details →	PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709	3h 17m Denver	DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431	6h 10m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON