Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3200 PHX 09:49 → HNL 13:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 835 PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3200 Southwest	PHX 09:49	HNL 13:32	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3395 Southwest	PHX 09:34	HNL 13:10	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 10:06	HNL 14:05	20%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:43	HNL 12:21	24%	4%	0.7%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 18m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 06m	98%	79%
United Details →	PHX 06:58 → SFO 09:17UA 2449	1h 28m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	9h 22m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON