Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4077 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4077 PHX 06:06 → HOU 10:37 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 799 PHX 13:07 → HOU 17:38 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4077 Southwest	PHX 06:06	HOU 10:37	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4718 Southwest	PHX 09:34	HOU 14:05	11%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2267 Southwest	PHX 16:15	HOU 20:46	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1386 Southwest	PHX 18:04	HOU 22:31	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 799 Southwest	PHX 13:07	HOU 17:38	19%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON