tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1873 United Flight history → PHX 08:50 IAD 16:17 8% 2% 0.5% 92%
UA 1017 United Flight history → PHX 14:01 IAD 21:36 8% 4% 0.5% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 55m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 32m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:59 → DEN 21:54UA 1745 2h 05m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 28m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 20m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 7h 41m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:12 → ORD 18:43UA 1842 3h 02m Chicago ORD 21:45 → IAD 00:36 +1UA 1922 8h 24m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 19m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 01m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:45 → SFO 13:02UA 2619 3h 32m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 11h 10m 99% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON