tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 3570 at 19:27, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3570 Envoy PHX 19:27 ICT 23:48 16% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 59m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 27m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624 1h 48m Denver DEN 21:09 → ICT 23:44UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128 8h 32m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 13:20 → ICT 15:11DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → ICT 19:23AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 6h 52m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:25 → DEN 16:09UA 709 2h 17m Denver DEN 18:26 → ICT 20:53UA 1788 5h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:13 → ORD 18:44UA 1842 2h 58m Chicago ORD 21:42 → ICT 23:40UA 424 8h 27m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON