Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2954 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2954 PHX 08:40 → IND 15:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4775 PHX 13:32 → IND 19:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2954 American Flight history →	PHX 08:40	IND 15:34	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1588 Southwest	PHX 09:42	IND 15:55	11%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4775 Southwest	PHX 13:32	IND 19:44	19%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON