tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 14m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392 7h 09m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720 7h 50m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 1h 39m Chicago ORD 14:30 → JAX 18:07AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → JAX 21:39DL 2189 8h 25m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:07 → JAX 15:24UA 1451 6h 24m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:49 → JAX 16:29AA 1472 8h 19m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 36m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 8h 18m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON