Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 13:31 → JFK 21:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	6%	3%	1.6%	93%
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	9%	3%	1.4%	87%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	14%	4%	2.0%	89%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	19%	5%	1.0%	76%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	PHX 09:58	JFK 18:06	22%	5%	1.3%	87%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	JFK 20:01	22%	7%	1.1%	80%
AA 475 American	PHX 12:49	JFK 20:30	24%	8%	1.1%	no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 13:31	JFK 21:16	30%	11%	1.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 15:11 → ATL 21:50DL 796	49m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	6h 44m	84%	71%
American Details →	PHX 05:02 → ORD 10:37AA 3062	53m Chicago	ORD 11:30 → JFK 14:44AA 3225	6h 42m	88%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON