Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:44, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops today


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	16%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 08:00 → SEA 11:06DL 2374	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	12h 35m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 02m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:47 → SEA 15:49AS 609	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 20:45AS 238	10h 58m	98%	77%
American Details →	PHX 08:00 → LAX 09:34AA 1892	3h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 12:35 → KOA 15:29AA 59	10h 29m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:21AS 835	2h 53m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	10h 17m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:57 → SEA 09:00AS 605	58m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:03AS 518	10h 06m	85%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON