Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3207 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3207 PHX 05:41 → LAS 06:51 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1505 PHX 17:02 → LAS 18:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3207 Southwest	PHX 05:41	LAS 06:51	1%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	PHX 07:04	LAS 08:14	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 279 Southwest	PHX 08:05	LAS 09:15	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 107 Southwest	PHX 11:07	LAS 12:31	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1956 American	PHX 07:07	LAS 08:25	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 513 Southwest	PHX 09:42	LAS 10:52	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:18	LAS 09:43	8%	4%	0.8%	84%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 20:01	LAS 21:11	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2109 American Flight history →	PHX 09:58	LAS 11:18	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 457 American	PHX 11:08	LAS 12:35	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1895 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:34	LAS 22:00	11%	6%	1.0%	82%
WN 4353 Southwest	PHX 15:09	LAS 16:19	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2631 American	PHX 13:37	LAS 14:58	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 17:43	LAS 18:53	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	PHX 16:07	LAS 17:17	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	PHX 13:37	LAS 14:46	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1505 American	PHX 17:02	LAS 18:21	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON