Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 4057 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 4057 PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4278 PHX 20:02 → LAX 21:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
OO 5335 SkyWest	PHX 13:46	LAX 15:39	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:29	LAX 08:02	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 3211 Southwest	PHX 07:20	LAX 08:43	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:50	LAX 12:26	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	PHX 07:07	LAX 08:39	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2318 United	PHX 07:56	LAX 09:30	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 1061 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 10:14	LAX 11:52	9%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	LAX 15:35	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
OO 5969 SkyWest	PHX 18:36	LAX 20:08	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	PHX 11:44	LAX 13:07	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1331 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	LAX 18:33	17%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 4690 Southwest	PHX 15:51	LAX 17:13	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4278 Southwest	PHX 20:02	LAX 21:23	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON