Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 10:37, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AA 697 American Flight history →	PHX 10:49	LIH 14:36	22%	5%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	12h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	10h 04m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:11 → SEA 14:16DL 2419	1h 34m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 47m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:29 → SEA 14:32AS 637	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 16:55 → LIH 20:10AS 237	11h 41m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:56 → SEA 08:59AS 605	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 44m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:20AS 835	50m Honolulu	HNL 13:10 → LIH 14:04AS 1083	8h 21m	66%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON