tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4892 at 19:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4892 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 19:00 MAF 22:48 16% 8% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:28 → MAF 16:51AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → MAF 20:02AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 7h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709 3h 06m Denver DEN 19:14 → MAF 22:18UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 45m Houston IAH 19:48 → MAF 21:30UA 6276 · flown by Mesa 7h 10m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 41m Houston IAH 14:33 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:12 → IAH 20:55UA 2198 53m Houston IAH 21:48 → MAF 23:19UA 1592 5h 07m 84% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON