Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 504 PHX 07:09 → MCI 11:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2324 PHX 14:48 → MCI 19:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 504 Southwest	PHX 07:09	MCI 11:36	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3552 Southwest	PHX 09:08	MCI 13:35	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 1287 Southwest	PHX 10:55	MCI 15:22	10%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 1622 American Flight history →	PHX 09:52	MCI 14:52	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 2324 Southwest	PHX 14:48	MCI 19:15	11%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON