Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4363 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4363 PHX 06:11 → MDW 11:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4978 PHX 15:46 → MDW 21:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4363 Southwest	PHX 06:11	MDW 11:27	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3224 Southwest	PHX 00:37	MDW 05:49	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3427 Southwest	PHX 08:31	MDW 13:44	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4663 Southwest	PHX 09:40	MDW 14:53	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2824 Southwest	PHX 12:36	MDW 17:51	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4978 Southwest	PHX 15:46	MDW 21:00	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON