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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 6h 29m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 04m Denver DEN 10:56 → MEM 14:21UA 2789 6h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 1h 34m Chicago ORD 08:24 → MEM 10:20AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 7h 05m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 9h 07m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:19AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681 7h 54m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 22m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 8h 06m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON