Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1968 PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 404 PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1968 American Flight history →	PHX 09:00	MIA 16:41	17%	5%	1.2%	88%
AA 1222 American	PHX 16:05	MIA 23:27	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 404 American	PHX 12:13	MIA 19:48	24%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON