tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via O'Hare, leaving 16:34, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Madison on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1670 American Flight history → PHX 08:36 MSN 14:14 12% 3% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:02 → ORD 10:37AA 3062 3h 00m Chicago ORD 13:37 → MSN 14:37AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 7h 35m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:17 → ORD 05:44AA 1148 1h 32m Chicago ORD 07:16 → MSN 08:19AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 6h 02m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:19 → ATL 13:03DL 918 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:21 → MSN 16:33DL 2599 8h 14m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor 6h 32m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:10 → MSN 13:29UA 2368 5h 29m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:53 → ATL 17:32DL 348 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144 9h 45m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599 7h 09m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 1h 49m Chicago ORD 14:17 → MSN 15:14UA 1595 6h 24m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON