Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3629 at 11:24, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3629 Southwest	PHX 11:24	MSY 16:23	15%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 32m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678	9h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	8h 14m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → MSY 10:51AA 4040 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	97%	88%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	1h 03m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	5h 04m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546	1h 32m New York	JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02DL 1387	10h 02m	98%	87%
United Details →	PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873	1h 50m Dulles	IAD 18:07 → MSY 19:58UA 251	9h 08m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	5h 47m	94%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON