Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3228 PHX 09:16 → OAK 11:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4412 PHX 15:35 → OAK 17:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3228 Southwest	PHX 09:16	OAK 11:18	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	PHX 10:54	OAK 12:56	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3230 Southwest	PHX 21:51	OAK 23:54	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4412 Southwest	PHX 15:35	OAK 17:37	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON