tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1476 Southwest PHX 09:40 OGG 12:59 22% 3% 0.5% no record
AA 645 American Flight history → PHX 11:03 OGG 14:32 24% 6% 0.6% 87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:41 → SFO 12:54UA 2619 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 36m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 08:00 → SEA 11:07DL 2374 3h 52m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 12h 56m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 58m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 08m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:54 → SEA 10:56AS 645 2h 57m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 12h 05m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:55 → PDX 13:46AS 511 58m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:31AS 353 9h 36m 88% 72%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:58 → SFO 09:18UA 2449 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 36m 86% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON