Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3232 PHX 10:34 → OKC 14:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6320 PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3232 Southwest	PHX 10:34	OKC 14:42	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:47	OKC 13:03	11%	4%	0.5%	89%
WN 4447 Southwest	PHX 19:21	OKC 23:36	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6320 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	OKC 23:15	15%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON