Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3236 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3236 PHX 09:16 → ONT 10:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1666 PHX 16:49 → ONT 18:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3236 Southwest	PHX 09:16	ONT 10:35	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 692 Southwest	PHX 13:01	ONT 14:21	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:49	ONT 12:20	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 3185 Southwest	PHX 16:24	ONT 17:43	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 16:49	ONT 18:17	17%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON