Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3062 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3062 PHX 05:02 → ORD 10:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1402 PHX 16:36 → ORD 21:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3062 American Flight history →	PHX 05:02	ORD 10:37	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 2823 United	PHX 01:09	ORD 06:32	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 01:15	ORD 06:50	7%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:33	ORD 14:19	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:54	10%	4%	0.5%	78%
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 09:09	ORD 14:38	10%	5%	0.5%	61%
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:21	ORD 16:49	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 332 American Flight history →	PHX 10:10	ORD 16:01	12%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	14%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:12	ORD 18:43	15%	5%	0.5%	83%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 15:22	ORD 20:55	17%	6%	0.6%	65%
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:36	ORD 21:53	19%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON