Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3047 PHX 06:20 → PHL 14:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2721 PHX 13:15 → PHL 21:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3047 American	PHX 06:20	PHL 14:06	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PHX 23:08	PHL 06:52	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2300 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	PHL 16:42	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 357 American	PHX 15:40	PHL 23:20	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:15	PHL 21:15	16%	5%	0.6%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 15:11 → ATL 21:50DL 796	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 48m	92%	83%
American Details →	PHX 05:02 → ORD 10:37AA 3062	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	6h 52m	96%	83%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	53m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 50m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON