tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 734 at 12:42, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 734 Southwest PHX 12:42 PIT 19:37 22% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:36 → ORD 05:51AA 1148 2h 29m Chicago ORD 08:20 → PIT 11:07AA 4478 · flown by Republic 7h 31m 98% 93%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:38 → EWR 14:11UA 1222 1h 49m Newark EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37UA 3591 · flown by Republic 7h 59m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 45m Detroit DTW 14:33 → PIT 15:44DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor 6h 44m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:20 → ATL 12:59DL 918 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 14:35 → PIT 16:24DL 1568 7h 04m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 00:52 → MSP 05:58DL 1289 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845 6h 41m 96% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 13:34 → PIT 16:39DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor 6h 54m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 2h 33m Chicago ORD 20:41 → PIT 23:23AA 4527 · flown by Republic 8h 08m 98% 91%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON