Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 6244 SkyWest	PHX 12:16	PSC 15:09	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 5006 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:57	PSC 19:37	10%	3%	0.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	3h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:24 → PSC 13:09DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712	6h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762	10h 03m	99%	83%
United Details →	PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709	2h 58m Denver	DEN 19:06 → PSC 20:30UA 1737	7h 06m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	7h 55m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON