Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 3832 at 08:42, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3832 Envoy	PHX 08:42	RAP 12:26	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:56 → RAP 16:30AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	8h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	97%	89%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → RAP 11:30UA 4674 · flown by SkyWest	4h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → RAP 15:29DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	99%	88%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	2h 37m Denver	DEN 14:37 → RAP 16:01UA 5891 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	99%	87%
United Details →	PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624	1h 42m Denver	DEN 21:03 → RAP 22:23UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	4h 58m	94%	86%
United Details →	PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709	1h 47m Denver	DEN 17:55 → RAP 19:24UA 5225 · flown by SkyWest	5h 00m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON