tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 11:49 RDM 14:35 7% 2% 0.6% 87%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 16:31 RDM 19:13 9% 2% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 33m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082 6h 53m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 00m Seattle SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:24 → DEN 16:08UA 709 3h 21m Denver DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588 7h 41m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 14:29 → SEA 17:27AS 611 2h 29m Seattle SEA 19:56 → RDM 21:08AS 2388 · flown by Horizon 6h 39m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:45 → SFO 13:02UA 2619 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 16:39 → RDM 18:20UA 2418 7h 35m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 59m Seattle SEA 11:28 → RDM 12:33AS 275 5h 13m 75% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON